The oil behind Bush and Son's campaigns ", Asia Times, Hong Kong

Following on Amy and Jim's postings on oil, here is an Oct 6 piece from the
Asia Times (Hong Kong).

The oil behind Bush and Son's campaigns
 Ranjit Devraj

> >NEW DELHI - Just as the Gulf War in 1991 was all about oil, the new
> >conflict in South and Central Asia is no less about access to the
> >region's abundant petroleum resources, according to Indian analysts.
> >
> >"US influence and military presence in Afghanistan and the Central Asian
> >states, not unlike that over the oil-rich Gulf states, would be a major
> >strategic gain," said V R Raghavan, a strategic analyst and former
> >general in the Indian army. Raghavan believes that the prospect of a
> >western military presence in a region extending from Turkey to Tajikistan
> >could not have escaped strategists who are now readying a military
> >campaign aimed at changing the political order in Afghanistan, accused by
> >the United States of harboring Osama bin Laden.
> >
> >Where the "great game" in Afghanistan was once about czars and commissars
> >seeking access to the warm water ports of the Persian Gulf, today it is
> >about laying oil and gas pipelines to the untapped petroleum reserves of
> >Central Asia. According to testimony before the US House of
> >Representatives in March 1999 by the conservative think tank Heritage
> >Foundation, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan together
> >have 15 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. The same countries also
> >have proven gas deposits totaling not less than nine trillion cubic
> >meters. Another study by the Institute for Afghan Studies placed the
> >total worth of oil and gas reserves in the Central Asian republics at
> >around US $3 trillion at last year's prices.
> >
> >Not only can Afghanistan play a role in hosting pipelines connecting
> >Central Asia to international markets, but the country itself has
> >significant oil and gas deposits. During the Soviets' decade-long
> >occupation of Afghanistan, Moscow estimated Afghanistan's proven and
> >probable natural gas reserves at around five trillion cubic feet and
> >production reached 275 million cubic feet per day in the mid-1970s. But
> >sabotage by anti-Soviet mujahideen (freedom fighters) and by rival groups
> >in the civil war that followed Soviet withdrawal in 1989 virtually closed
> >down gas production and ended deals for the supply of gas to several
> >European countries.
> >
> >Major Afghan natural gas fields awaiting exploitation include Jorqaduq,
> >Khowaja, Gogerdak, and Yatimtaq, all of which are located within 9
> >kilometers of the town of Sheberghan in northrern Jowzjan province.
> >
> >Natural gas production and distribution under Afghanistan's Taliban
> >rulers is the responsibility of the Afghan Gas Enterprise which, in 1999,
> >began repair of a pipeline to Mazar-i-Sharif city. Afghanistan's proven
> >and probable oil and condensate reserves were placed at 95 million
> >barrels by the Soviets. So far, attempts to exploit Afghanistan's
> >petroleum reserves or take advantage of its unique geographical location
> >as a crossroads to markets in Europe and South Asia have been thwarted by
> >the continuing civil strife.
> >
> >In 1998, the California-based UNOCAL, which held 46.5 percent stakes in
> >Central Asia Gas (CentGas), a consortium that planned an ambitious gas
> >pipeline across Afghanistan, withdrew in frustration after several
> >fruitless years. The pipeline was to stretch 1,271km from Turkmenistan's
> >Dauletabad fields to Multan in Pakistan at an estimated cost of $1.9
> >billion. An additional $600 million would have brought the pipeline to
> >energy-hungry India.
> >
> >Energy experts in India, such as R K Pachauri, who heads the Tata Energy
> >Research Institute (TERI), have long been urging the country's planners
> >to ensure access to petroleum products from the Central Asian republics,
> >with which New Delhi has traditionally maintained good relations. Other
> >partners in CentGas included the Saudi Arabian Delta Oil Company, the
> >Government of Turkmenistan, Indonesia Petroleum (INPEX), the Japanese
> >ITOCHU, Korean Hyundai and Pakistan's Crescent Group.
> >
> >According to observers, one problem is the uncertainty over who the
> >beneficiaries in Afghanistan would be - the opposition Northern Alliance,
> >the Taliban, the Afghan people or indeed, whether any of these would
> >benefit at all. But the immediate reason for UNOCAL's withdrawal was
> >undoubtedly the US cruise missile attacks on Osama bin Laden's terrorism
> >training camps in Afghanistan in August 1998, done in retaliation for the
> >bombing of its embassies in Africa. UNOCAL then stated that the project
> >would have to wait until Afghanistan achieved the "peace and stability
> >necessary to obtain financing from international agencies and a
> >government that is recognized by the United States and the United
> >Nations".
> >
> >The "coalition against terrorism" that US President George W Bush is
> >building now is the first opportunity that has any chance of making
> >UNOCAL's wish come true. If the coalition succeeds, Raghavan said, it has
> >the potential of "reconfiguring substantially the energy scenarios for
> >the 21st century".
> >
> >(Inter Press Service)
> >
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